Game Theory – Learn The Basics of Game Theory

I am sure most of my readers will be familiar with Game Theory as the most likely studied it at college. If however you are one of the lucky/unlucky ones not to be introduced to the wonderful world of game theory then read on.

What the Hell is Game Theory?

The wikitionary describes Game Theory as:

Game theory attempts to mathematically capture behavior in strategic situations, in which an individual’s success in making choices depends on the choices of others. While initially developed to analyze competitions in which one individual does better at another’s expense (zero sum games), it has been expanded to treat a wide class of interactions, which are classified according to several criteria.

I know what you are thinking, that sounds complicated and boring. Before you give up on it however you might like to look at Yale Universities FREE Introduction to Game Theory course. The course is highly practical and covers the basic concepts of Game Theory. You can download the videos and watch them at your own pace.

Topics Covered

  1. Introduction: five first lessons
  2. Putting yourselves into other people’s shoes
  3. Iterative deletion and the median-voter theorem
  4. Best responses in soccer and business partnerships
  5. Nash equilibrium: bad fashion and bank runs
  6. Nash equilibrium: dating and Cournot
  7. Nash equilibrium: shopping, standing and voting on a line
  8. Nash equilibrium: location, segregation and randomization
  9. Mixed strategies in theory and tennis
  10. Mixed strategies in baseball, dating and paying your taxes
  11. Evolutionary stability: cooperation, mutation, and equilibrium
  12. Evolutionary stability: social convention, aggression, and cycles
  13. Sequential games: moral hazard, incentives, and hungry lions
  14. Backward induction: commitment, spies, and first-mover advantages
  15. Backward induction: chess, strategies, and credible threats
  16. Backward induction: reputation and duels
  17. Backward induction: ultimatums and bargaining
  18. Imperfect information: information sets and sub-game perfection
  19. Subgame perfect equilibrium: matchmaking and strategic investments
  20. Subgame perfect equilibrium: wars of attrition
  21. Repeated games: cooperation vs. the end game
  22. Repeated games: cheating, punishment, and outsourcing
  23. Asymmetric information: silence, signaling and suffering education
  24. Asymmetric information: auctions and the winner’s curse

If you manage to get through these videos you will have and excellent understanding of the fundamentals of Game Theory and it might just help your trading.

gggggIntroduction: five first lessons
Putting yourselves into other people’s shoes
Iterative deletion and the median-voter theorem
Best responses in soccer and business partnerships
Nash equilibrium: bad fashion and bank runs
Nash equilibrium: dating and Cournot
Nash equilibrium: shopping, standing and voting on a line
Nash equilibrium: location, segregation and randomization
Mixed strategies in theory and tennis
Mixed strategies in baseball, dating and paying your taxes
Evolutionary stability: cooperation, mutation, and equilibrium
Evolutionary stability: social convention, aggression, and cycles
Sequential games: moral hazard, incentives, and hungry lions
Backward induction: commitment, spies, and first-mover advantages
Backward induction: chess, strategies, and credible threats
Backward induction: reputation and duels
Backward induction: ultimatums and bargaining
Imperfect information: information sets and sub-game perfection
Subgame perfect equilibrium: matchmaking and strategic investments
Subgame perfect equilibrium: wars of attrition
Repeated games: cooperation vs. the end game
Repeated games: cheating, punishment, and outsourcing
Asymmetric information: silence, signaling and suffering education
Asymmetric information: auctions and the winner’s cur

Popularity: 2% [?]

 

The Best Economic Calendars – Keep Up To Date With The Latest Announcements

As traders of any market it is important to know what is going on in the world. By this statement I don’t mean you have to sit glued to CNBC or some other brain-dead news service. Every day there are announcements and releases of economic data that have the potential to move markets. Today I thought I would share with you the economic calendars I use and some tools I use for analysis.

Economic Calenders

When it comes to economic calendars you will find an assortment of them on-line. There are only two online calendars that I use on daily basis. They are the Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory and Bloomberg Calendar the screenshots of these calendars shown below:

Forex Factory - Calendar

Bloomberg Economic Calendar

Out of these two calendars my favourite would have to be the Forex Calendar it has more features and has a much easier workflow then Bloomberg. 

Forex Calendar Features

The first thing you will want to do with both these calendars is adjust your time zone. After I have done this I like to get out my trading notebook and I enter  the announcements that will be relevant to me on that given day. To get more detail about a specific announcement simply click on the detail button. The detail window gives you the following information:

  • Source
  • Measures
  • Usual Effect
  • Frequency
  • Next Release
  • FF Notes
  • Why Traders care
  • Derived via
  • Acro Expand
  • History
  • Related items

The screenshot below shows the Forex Calendar detail feature in action:

Forex Calendar Detail The other unique feature the Forex calendar has is the ability to chart historical release data. Like the detail feature you simply click on the chart icon and an interactive chart will be generated within the same window.  The image below shows the chart feature in action:

Forex Calendar chart

Software Tools

I use the free tool FF Calendar to news software as it provides an easy way for me to build a database of future and historic news events on my local computer. This is very handy for some system design work I do. The screenshot below shows my news events history database:

History databaseOnce my database is populated I can then run a script that overlays each of the economic events on the appropriate chart. This allows for me to graphically view the impact if any on the underlying markets. The screenshot below shows the auto generated chart content on the EUR/USD 1 minute spot chart:

Chart Overlay In my next post I will talk about the classic reference book that I often refer to surrounding news releases The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities.

Popularity: 3% [?]

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Exporting Data From MetaTrader

I received an email today from a reader wanting to know if there was an expert advisor available that would export data to a csv file. although I have not myself seen an EA that does this it is a trivial matter to code such an EA shown below:

int handlFile;
handlFile = FileOpen(”symbol.csv”, FILE_CSV | FILE_WRITE | FILE_READ, ‘,’);
FileSeek(handlFile, 0, SEEK_END);
FileWrite(handlFile, Bid, Ask, Close[1], Volume[1]);
FileClose(handlFile);

Note: This code above is intended as a very rough solution. Time permitting I will write a proper EA with error checking and better features. This code however should be sufficient for basic tasks. For more information on EA coding I strongly recommend you download the getting started book:

MQL Tutorial

The Non EA Export Option

Can’t be bothered with that coding garbage? Never fear there is a very simple option. Go to the Tools Menu then History Centre a dialog box similar to the one shown below will appear simply chose the currency you wish to export and select a file name and your done. This process is shown below:

ExportMetaTraderDataCSV

MetaTrader really is an excellent platform for learning the basics of trading and trading systems. I would recommend to anyone starting out in currency trading that they download MetaTrader and start exploring. If you want to learn more about Forex Trading I suggest you visit the Forex section of this website.

Popularity: 11% [?]

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