I have wanted to see Moneyball since it came out at the cinemas. I finally took the time out and went and saw it last night. I was very impressed with the movie to say the least. It really drew me in and it didn’t feel slow at all even with it’s 2 hours 21 minutes running time.

Moneyball depicts the story of Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane’s (Brad Pitt) challenges to put together a championship team on a budget. He employs Peter Brand(Jonah Hill) who uses computer-generated analysis to pick players to draft. Moneyball will appeal to a diverse audience and even if you don’t know much about baseball I still recomend it.

Watch the Trailer for Moneyball

Moneyball left me Wanting More Baseball

After watching Moneyball I decided that I need to add watching a baesball game at Fenway Park to my bucket list. In Australia baseball is not really that big, I do remember seeing the Adelaide Giants play at the Norwood oval back in the early 90′s. I am an avid cricket fan but there is just something about baseball that I love. I am adding the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract to my books to read list.

From the reviews on Amazon this book looks like it will be an excellent read. I am quite interested in reading the methods for player evaluation and am interested to see what statistical methods are used.

I am interested in getting some feedback from my American readers on Bill Jame’s book and the original Moneyball book. Is it worth reading?

Sabermetrics

“the search for objective knowledge about baseball.”

-Bill James

Essentially Billy Beane based drafting decisions on two key questions:

1. Does the player get on base?
2. Can the player hit?

Final Word

Excellent cast, great storyline an inspiring movie. It just goes to show that statistical analysis can be applied to a diverse range of fields. I loved the quote at the start of the movie I will paraphrase it as I cant remember it exactly.”We have got to think differently, we are the last dog to the bowl. Everyone knows what happens to the runt of the litter”. Retail traders need to be aware that they are the last dog to the bowl.

I want to share with you a video by Dr. Mike Evans he is founder of the Health Design Lab at the Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute. It is very well put together presentation and very thought provoking.

At the moment I am running eSignal on a dedicated Windows 7 computer, however it would be helpful to also run eSignal on my iMac. If you want to run eSignal on a Mac OS X you really only have two options at the moment.

1. Install on Bootcamp and multi boot.
2. Install in a virtual machine.

I have put together a quick video detailing the options below.

eSignal running in Parallels

The install process is pretty straightforward and so far eSignal has been running perfectly. The best way to see how well eSignal performs is by seeing it in action under Parallels Desktop 7.

• To skip the install process and watch demo of eSignal running in the virtual machine.
• To skip to cold start time of eSignal.

Enrolment has opened in three Stanford University courses that will be offered online. These courses differ from the normal MIT open courseware programs. After completion of tests and assignments you will receive a letter of attainment from the lecturers. While the course’s will not give you credits from Stanford University it is an excellent opportunity to gain knowledge that can applied to trading systems.

The Course’s Offered

1. Introduction to Artificial Intelligence
2. Introduction to Databases
3. Machine Learning

Each of the courses requires about ten hours of additional study on top of the lectures. I have signed up to the advanced track of all three course and am looking forward to taking part. Even though I have already taken a level III AI program at university it will be good refresh my knowledge.

Introduction to Artificial Intelligence Video

Machine Learning Video

Introduction to Databases Video

I love the blog lots of excellent articles. I am looking forward to the book coming out October 27th.

Freakenomics the Movie Trailer

Freakenomics Movie Trailer

The documentary opens with an example of a real-estate agent and their clients, pretty much summarises the principal-agent problem. In the documentary five teams of directors each do their own segment.

Introduction and Transitional segments

1. Real Estate.
2. Cheating
3. Parenting.
4. Incentives.
5. Cause and Effect.

A Roshanda By Any Other Name

Written by: Jeremy Chilnick & Morgan Spurlock

Directed by: Morgan Spurlock

This segment looks at Parenting and the Naming of Children and if the name has any effect on the child’s potential. It was entertaining however nothing earth shattering was introduced. The segment also looked at the differences between names of black’s and whites.

Pure Corruption

Written by: Peter Bull & Alex Gibney

In this segment cheating and corruption was examined. The example they used was Sumo wrestling in Japan. I found it interesting, however I think they could have used a better example to highlight the concept. Basically the example highlights gains through collusion

It’s Not Always A Wonderful Life

Written and Directed by: Eugene Jarecki

This segment looks at why the crime rate has dropped, when everyone expected it to continue to rise. It is an interesting yet controversial theory. I wont spoil it for people who haven’t seen the movie. I found this segment to be the most thought provoking and interesting.

Can a Ninth Grader be Bribed to succeed ?

Written and Directed by: Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady

This segment looks at the development of an incentive scheme to help ninth graders improve there grades. It was interesting yet predictable and would be good to see a wider study of this nature undertaken.

Bottom Line

Really the crux of the who movie/documentary is that incentive matter, figure out what a persons incentives are and you will have a good chance of predicting how they will behave. Also the Causality and correlation issue is exposed to a wider audience. Overall this is the kind of movie that you could watch with a girlfriend or someone who has no clue about economics and they would still find it interesting.

Today I will be looking at the TIMFundamentals DVD package. This package consists of TIMFundamentals a 4 DVDs in total and a thick workbook. TIMFundamentals is aimed at new traders and traders who want to learn Timothy Sykes strategy.

Timothy Sykes: TIMFundamentals DVD One approximate runtime 1 hour 3 minutes 

The first DVD is a recorded coaching session of Tim doing some 1-1 coaching and is split into four chapters. As usual the first 26 pages of the workbook detail Tim’s other products. This may be useful to some people, but most people will derive little value from this advertising. This DVD pretty much consists of Tim going through the basics of how he undertakes his research. This DVD covers some important topics and is helpful for people wanting to learn how to trade Tim’s strategy. This DVD shows how Tim goes about identifying potential trades and the websites he uses. It would have been helpful if we could actually see what Tim and his student were actually looking at on the screen.   

Topics covered include:

• The benefits of using free sites.
• Ticker gathering process.
• Typical moves.
• Identifying the usual suspects.
• Self fulfilling prophecies.
• Some example trades.
• Stock promoters.

Timothy Sykes: TIMFundamentals DVD Two approximate runtime 1 hour 30 minutes

In DVD two we resume with Tim and his coaching student going through the watch list building process.  In this DVD we gain some excellent insight into Tim’s research process. Once again some very interesting concepts are introduced. You will need to make sure you take notes when watching this DVD as some excellent topics points are made that are not written in the workbook.

Topics covered include:

• Specific forums and message boards for research.
• More research sites revealed.
• Press releases and there usefulness.
• Some detailed variables.
• Some basic fundamental indicators.

Timothy Sykes: TIMFundamentals DVD Three approximate runtime 1 hour 50 minutes

DVD three is split into ten chapters and is in screencast format. This is the practical part of the Tim Fundamentals DVD, we get to see Tim create his actual watch lists.  This DVD is highly practical and reinforces the concepts presented in the first DVD. Tim spends quite sometime going through how he uses Clearstation in his research process. Tim also shows us Covestor and his ranking and briefly talks about auto trading. In short this DVD gives excellent practical advice for researching and building of watch lists.

Timothy Sykes: TIMFundamentals DVD Four approximate runtime 1 hour 34 minutes

In the final DVD Tim continues his research and watch list building. In this DVD we also get to see a behind the scenes look at his TimAlerts program. In this DVD Tim continues to filter his watch list. This DVD as the previous is very practical in nature and has some valuable information. It is good that Tim is going through his actual techniques he uses and goes into a lot of detail. In some parts of this DVD there is blurring and the image is un-viewable, Tim needs to get Camtasia and make sure he does the screen capture on a computer with decent RAM and a fast CPU. Finally the DVD goes over actually trading the stocks that were researched the previous day. In his conclusion Tim makes some very good points about the research process. 

Bottom Line

TIMFundamentals is for new traders or people who have little experience in the stock market. The concepts presented are simple, practical and easy to understand. The first two DVD’s moved slowly however they had useful content. The final DVD’s were highly practical and showed the tools that Tim uses on a daily basis. If you are interested in seeing how Tim trades and what he does on a daily basis then TIMFundamentals is for you. This is an excellent introduction to the research process. The one thing that surprised me is that Tim has not automated his processes. TIMFundamentals delivers on its promises and provides you with a look behind the scenes on the Timothy Sykes research process. 

Pros

• Excellent for beginners.
• Research process explained in detail.
• Both theory and practical concepts covered.
• The best free research websites revealed.

Cons

• First two DVD’s slow.
• Screen cast quality not the best.

Related Reviews

• Timothy Sykes DVD Review: PennyStocking.
• Timothy Sykes DVD Review: PennyStocking Part Deux.
• Timothy Sykes DVD Review: ShortStocking
• Timothy Sykes DVD Review: Tim Raw.

Timothy Sykes is nearly impossible to slap a conventional label on. He has managed to achieve what some people take a lifetime to achieve in just 28 years. He has been trader, hedge fund manager, reality TV star, publisher, author and now an educator. Sykes most notable achievement was his great trading gains made from 1999-2002, where he turned $12,415 to $1.65 million trading penny stocks. Tim has had many successes and also some well documented failures. There is no denying he really knows his niche and has performed very well throughout 2009 and the start of 2010.

Timothy Sykes ShortStocking package comes with an instructional manual and four DVD’s. A lot of people struggle to understand what ShortStocking or selling short actually is and I think this DVD is pitched at the beginner market.

ShortStocking DVD Disc One – approx runtime 55 minutes

As with all Timothy Sykes DVD’s I have watched, ShortStocking starts with a disclaimer and background information.

Topics covered include:

Introduction

• What is short selling?
• How to think about short selling?
• How to go about short selling?
• Why is short selling so misunderstood?

Basics

• Selling Short.
• Account Requirements.
• Fees/margin interest.
• Buying to cover.
• Definition of terms: Sell Short, Buy to Cover, Margin, Leverage, Hard to borrow, Easy to borrow, Find a locate Pre borrow, Reserve shares, SEC, Reg SHO, Market Maker, Naked Short, Margin Call, Short Squeeze, Short Bias, Long/Short Fund, Bid, Ask, Spread, Volatility, Liquidity, Uptick Rule, Hit The Bid.
• Basic math of a short squeeze.
• Basic math of a margin call.

ShortStocking DVD disc one covers the real basics of ShortStocking or selling short. If you are a new trader or have never traded before you will find the information presented in and easy to understand entertaining manner. Tim does not get bogged down in text book definitions or highly complex mathematical equations. You will find this first DVD gives new market participants or beginners a foundation to continue with the following DVD’s. If you are an experienced trader you might want to skip forward to DVD two.

ShortStocking DVD Disc Two – approx runtime 52 minutes

The second DVD continues with a glossary of terms and looks and more specific trade based examples.

Topics covered include:

Glossary(cont)

• Technical Breakout.
• Technical Breakdown.
• Afternoon Squeeze.
• Morning Squeeze.
• Short interest.
• Public Float.
• Shares Outstanding.
• Days to cover.

Candlestick Chart Example

• Technical Breakout.
• Technical Breakdown.
• Afternoon Squeeze.
• Morning Squeeze.

Important Differences in Exchanges

• NYSE
• NASDAQ
• AMEX/OTCBB
• Pink Sheets

Important Differences in Stocks

Important Differences in Holding Periods

Disadvantages from Short Selling

Advantages from Short Selling

Short selling psychology

The second DVD covered more of the basic, yet important concepts. Tim goes beyond just defining these concepts he also gives real world examples that you won’t find in books. The material is of a basic nature but everything is covered in a good level of detail. Tim did an excellent job of outlining both the disadvantages and advantages of short selling. Whilst explaining technical breakouts we also get a free life lesson from Tim about work life balance. Expect to see another DVD out shortly called TIM:Life Lessons: Keeping the Girlfriend Happy Whilst Working 24/7 j/k.

ShortStocking DVD Disc Three – approx runtime 1 hour 22 minutes

The third DVD is where the action is, we get to see how Tim chooses stocks to short.

Topics covered include:

When to Short: Based on Fraud

• Boiler Rooms
• Accounting
• Faulty Product
• Misleading PR

When to Short: Based on Stock Over-valuation

• PE Ratio
• PEG Ratio
• Price to Sales
• Book Value
• and more.

When to Short: Based on Chart Patterns

• Green to Red on the day
• Into the market close.
• Gap and crap.
• and many more.

Stop Losses

• What are they?
• Riding the Wave.
• Where are they?
• When to cover?

Intraday Patterns Explained

• Morning Squeeze.
• Morning Panic.
• Afternoon Fade.
• Afternoon Tank.

Seasonality Influences.

Other reasons to short

Some chart examples.

DVD three gets to the heart of the matter and goes over what to look for when shorting a stock. In this DVD Tim goes over the strategies he uses to find stocks to short. From this DVD one could easily build a stock screener that uses both technical and fundamental analysis to determine potential shorts. I think this is definitely an area more retail traders should look into. I think Tim did a very good job balancing the concepts presented.

ShortStocking DVD Disc Four – approx runtime 1 hour 52 minutes

The final DVD is all about examples, basic trends are explored but essentially the final DVD goes over short selling examples and their charts. In this DVD Tim also goes over specific times and events when you should not short. The final DVD is more longwinded, however there is still a lot of information that can be derived. Finally Tim gives both his parting tips and some crucial tips on implementing these strategies.

Bottom Line

Overall these DVD’s give a beginner an excellent introduction to short selling. Rather then present theoretical and  book definitions Tim provides real world examples. There are no real groundbreaking concepts presented however these DVD’s provide an excellent starting point for new traders looking to investigate short selling. If you are an experienced trader these DVD’s will probably not provide a lot of new information.

Pros

• Excellent DVD for beginners.
• Concepts presented in easy to understand manner.
• Extensive coverage of Short Selling concepts.
• Fundamental and Technical concepts covered.

Cons

• More advanced concepts not covered (I am sure this is due to fact DVD pitched at beginner market, Wait for ShortStocking !!).
• Tim can sometimes get too passionate about a topic he is discussing and go off on a tangent.

Related Reviews

• DVD Review: PennyStocking by Timothy Sykes.
• Timothy Sykes PennyStocking Part Deux – DVD Review.
• Timothy Sykes DVD – Tim Raw Review

If you are lucky enough to have a long weekend please drive safely.

As the name suggests Tim Raw has very little editing, no fancy production techniques and comes on four DVD’s.

Tim Raw DVD Disc One – Tim Lessons -Approx Runtime: 2hrs 30min

All in all this is a solid introduction to trading techniques and methods. You will find a multitude of generalised information and anecdotes throughout the DVD’s. I found the first DVD to be a bit slow and less structured then the remaining DVD’s yet there were some great tips. It is very helpful to take notes, as the first two DVD’s are not divided into any structured chapters. Some topics covered on this first DVD include:

Lesson 1

• Disclaimer
• “I am not responsible for any of your losses. If you do have any gains I would like to take credit for that, as I have taught you”
• A brief Introduction to who Timothy Sykes is
• The GYGT trade Lesson- Business reality vs Stock reality
• Nov 2007 The introduction of TIM (Transparent Investment Management)
• SEC Pattern day trading rule (intro)
• Tim Alerts (intro)
• A little bit of cross selling other DVD Products
• PennyStocking in Bull Markets
• Are all PennyStocks Frauds?
• An in depth look at the CYGT saga
• Sub Penny shares…. Should you play them?
• PennyStocking success stories and Covester
• How do you spend your PennyStocking profits?
• The Simplicity of PennyStocking
• Limit Orders Vs Market Orders
• A more in depth view of the pattern day trading rule
• A brief overview of ShortStocking concepts
• Trading Psychology a brief overview
• Habits of a good Trader
• Getting Over losing streaks

Lesson 2

• Managing other peoples money
• Starting a Hedge Fund – One man shops won’t work
• Licences needed
• Prop Firms
• The Financial media jungle
• CNBC and Noise
• Alternative Investment strategies
• Recommended Brokers
• Analysts
• High price stocks
• Tax Law selling
• Seasonal patterns

Book Reviews

The book review section was extremely average due to the lack of information provided by Tim. Despite the lack of information provided the books that were introduced were good and definitely important reading. You can gain just as much insight by visiting Tim’s Trading library section of his website.

Below is a selection of the books reviewed for a full list visit Tim’s library.

1. Book of Investing Wisdom
2. The Predictors
3. Mobs messiahs and markets
4. Bernard Baruch
5. Rouge Trader
6. The Man Who made Wallstreet
7. The Rich and how they got that way
8. The next great bubble boom
9. Lessons from the greatest stock traders of all times
10. Sell and Sell Short
11. Trading for a living
12. How to make money selling stocks short
13. Full of Bull
14. Your money and your brain
15. A mathematician plays the stock market
16. Practical Speculation
17. Millionaire traders
18. My life as a quant
19. Way of the turtle
20. Trend following
21. The Complete turtle trader
22. Inside the house of money
23. Fooling some of the people all of the time
24. The education of a speculator
25. Hedge Hunters
26. Jesse Livermore worlds greatest stock trader
27. Reminiscences of a stock operator
28. The wall street jungle
29. A random walk down wallstreet
30. Unconventional success
31. The white sharks of wall street
32. The boy wonder of wall street
33. Wall Street a History
34. Scam Dogs and Mo Mo Mama’s
35. Trading with enemy
36. Market Wizards
37. Morgan
38. Encyclopaedia of chart patterns
39. The Go Go years
40. The new market wizards
41. The wolf of Wall Street
42. Confessions of a Wall Street analyst
43. Running money
44. Wall Street Meat
45. Hedge Hogging
46. The book of Daniel Drew
47. Where are the customer’s yachts?
48. Soros the life and times
49. Sold short
50. Hedge Fund Masters
51. The poker face of Wall Street
52. Fooled by Randomness
53. All about options

After the book reviews the following topics are looked at:

• A Word about Stock promoters
• A Little history Tulip Mania

Tim Raw DVD Disc Two – Timothy Sykes Seminar Part One – Approx Runtime: 1hr 48min

The final DVD’s go through a recent seminar Tim gave. I found these DVD’s to be a very interesting insight into the way Tim trades. For anyone who is unable to attend a seminar in person this DVD is a great substitute. There are so many substandard educational products in the trading sphere it is good to actually come across a DVD, which contains an honest and open view of the industry. Some topics covered on this DVD include:

• Introductions
• A brief introduction to candlestick charting
• Use of stop losses and routing of orders
• A look at a level II screen
• ¾ stocks follow the market
• Bitter sellers an Explanation
• Pig Farming in China – A technical look
• A look at multiple timeframes
• The Kramer effect
• A look at covester website
• Stock MSG boars and Jonathan Levit
• Stocks that aren’t moving
• Everyone has an angle
• A look at a spam stock
• Midday volume dry up
• 10% Spreads! Crazy
• Naked Short Selling
• A few Seasonal Trends
• Stock Market Fundamentals Market Cap
• Breakouts
• Support and Resistance

Tim Raw DVD Disc Three – Seminar Part Two -Approx Runtime: 2hrs 9min

Some topics covered include:

• A discussion of the pattern day trading rule.
• Looking for market inefficiencies.
• A technical look at PR run ups.
• Cup and Handle pattern
• Some morning patterns
• Short Squeezes
• Taking into account all available variables
• Wait for good setups
• Buying Frauds
• Tim’s Favourite Breakout
• A Short Q&A
• More chart patterns
• Multiple timeframes
• Supernovas
• The Crow
• The Death Spiral
• Identifying short squeezes on the level II Screen
• Doubling your losses Newsletter – Read the fine print
• Yahoo finances – Understanding key statistics

Tim Raw DVD Disc Four – Seminar Part Three -Approx Runtime: 1hrs 44min

The final disc which I found to be the most interesting looks more closely at how Tim trades. Topics covered include:

• Examples of simple breakouts
• Short selling into strength
• Fake out Breakouts
• Morning panic
• An example of how Tim researches a play
• Breakdowns- looking at multiple timeframes
• Take losses quickly
• Forcing opportunities
• A look at media outlets
• Don’t trust insider buying
• Liquidity issues
• Plan for everything the night before
• Tim’s routine
• The sites Tim uses
• Building watch lists
• Don’t trust just one data source
• How Tim finds his stocks

Final Thoughts

Tim’s Raw DVD is a great introduction to his PennyStocking strategy and some general trading concepts. Tim’s Raw DVD should be watched before moving on to the PennyStocking DVD and PennyStocking Part Deux. It is evident throughout this DVD series that Tim knows his stuff when it comes to the Penny Stock niche. In the fast pace world of finance a new guru pops up every few months and then fades into obscurity. Tim’s profits and trades are well documented and transparent and his blog details the day-to-day happenings and events, which are pertinent to PennyStockers. I was very impressed with this DVD it is packed full of trading wisdom.

Pros

• No assumed knowledge.
• Presented in easy to understand manner.
• A vast amount of topics covered.
• Allows new trader to gain an insight into how a successful trader approaches trading.

Cons

• Dis-Jointed in parts
• DVD chapter selection sparse.
• Book review section not very informative.

Bottom Line

A vast array of topics are presented in an easy to understand manner. This is a perfect DVD for anyone who is considering PennyStocking. The production quality is raw but the content presented more then makes up for this. Tim is really maturing as a trader and educator (Maybe the influence of a good woman??).

A Master of PennyStocks gives us a master insight into the world of PennyStocks. I must say thank you Tim you have opened my eyes to opportunities that exist that I would have never even given a second of thought too. Although I don’t currently trade Penny Stocks the perspective and insight presented is still very relevant.