Building an automated currency trading system from scratch

In the next few weeks we are going to explore the basics of designing an automated currency trading system. We are going to use MetaTrader as the basis for the trading system. The actual strategy we design will be for illustrative purposes only and NOT tradable. That being said the tips and techniques you learn over the course of this series will give you skills needed to develop your own trading strategy.

Before you start

Before we start designing the automated trading system I will assume you are familiar with some basic FOREX or currency market concepts. If you are new to the finance world you may like to read the following articles.

To get you quickly up to speed with MetaTrader you can download the software from MetaQuotes. You may also benefit from reading the following basic articles.

So now you have a basic understanding of the FOREX or currency market and have MetaTrader installed on your computer we are ready to get started. Below is a roadmap for next few articles.

  • What is an automated Trading System and how can we build one in MetaTrader?
  • Expert Advisors and Indicators in MetaTrader.
  • Designing a simple strategy and pseudo code.
  • From pseudo code to a basic trading system.
  • Garbage in garbage out: improving modeling quality.
  • Testing, Testing, Optimization and more testing.
  • Forward testing and performance evaluation.
  • Automated Trading System version 2.0.
  • So you are ready to go live: Choosing a broker.
  • So you are ready to go live: Setting up a Virtual Private Server.

As you can see there is a lot of content that needs to be covered and I am sure as this series progresses there will be content added or removed depending on your input. If there is any materiel you want covered please send me an email or comment below.

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Game Theory – Learn The Basics of Game Theory

I am sure most of my readers will be familiar with Game Theory as the most likely studied it at college. If however you are one of the lucky/unlucky ones not to be introduced to the wonderful world of game theory then read on.

What the Hell is Game Theory?

The wikitionary describes Game Theory as:

Game theory attempts to mathematically capture behavior in strategic situations, in which an individual’s success in making choices depends on the choices of others. While initially developed to analyze competitions in which one individual does better at another’s expense (zero sum games), it has been expanded to treat a wide class of interactions, which are classified according to several criteria.

I know what you are thinking, that sounds complicated and boring. Before you give up on it however you might like to look at Yale Universities FREE Introduction to Game Theory course. The course is highly practical and covers the basic concepts of Game Theory. You can download the videos and watch them at your own pace.

Topics Covered

  1. Introduction: five first lessons
  2. Putting yourselves into other people’s shoes
  3. Iterative deletion and the median-voter theorem
  4. Best responses in soccer and business partnerships
  5. Nash equilibrium: bad fashion and bank runs
  6. Nash equilibrium: dating and Cournot
  7. Nash equilibrium: shopping, standing and voting on a line
  8. Nash equilibrium: location, segregation and randomization
  9. Mixed strategies in theory and tennis
  10. Mixed strategies in baseball, dating and paying your taxes
  11. Evolutionary stability: cooperation, mutation, and equilibrium
  12. Evolutionary stability: social convention, aggression, and cycles
  13. Sequential games: moral hazard, incentives, and hungry lions
  14. Backward induction: commitment, spies, and first-mover advantages
  15. Backward induction: chess, strategies, and credible threats
  16. Backward induction: reputation and duels
  17. Backward induction: ultimatums and bargaining
  18. Imperfect information: information sets and sub-game perfection
  19. Subgame perfect equilibrium: matchmaking and strategic investments
  20. Subgame perfect equilibrium: wars of attrition
  21. Repeated games: cooperation vs. the end game
  22. Repeated games: cheating, punishment, and outsourcing
  23. Asymmetric information: silence, signaling and suffering education
  24. Asymmetric information: auctions and the winner’s curse

If you manage to get through these videos you will have and excellent understanding of the fundamentals of Game Theory and it might just help your trading.

gggggIntroduction: five first lessons
Putting yourselves into other people’s shoes
Iterative deletion and the median-voter theorem
Best responses in soccer and business partnerships
Nash equilibrium: bad fashion and bank runs
Nash equilibrium: dating and Cournot
Nash equilibrium: shopping, standing and voting on a line
Nash equilibrium: location, segregation and randomization
Mixed strategies in theory and tennis
Mixed strategies in baseball, dating and paying your taxes
Evolutionary stability: cooperation, mutation, and equilibrium
Evolutionary stability: social convention, aggression, and cycles
Sequential games: moral hazard, incentives, and hungry lions
Backward induction: commitment, spies, and first-mover advantages
Backward induction: chess, strategies, and credible threats
Backward induction: reputation and duels
Backward induction: ultimatums and bargaining
Imperfect information: information sets and sub-game perfection
Subgame perfect equilibrium: matchmaking and strategic investments
Subgame perfect equilibrium: wars of attrition
Repeated games: cooperation vs. the end game
Repeated games: cheating, punishment, and outsourcing
Asymmetric information: silence, signaling and suffering education
Asymmetric information: auctions and the winner’s cur

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End of Week Links

Britain’s Pirate finder bill.

60 Free apps we are most thankful for.

Why Google wave sucks, And why you will use it anyway.

Portfolio.com has an article on Capital Flight.

The Kirk Report has some very interesting Mail bag Q&A. (If you are not a member of this site yet you are missing a lot of vital info.)

Mike has posted on the rationaliser.

Move the Markets has the Virtual Bars Indicator.

Brett has some interesting reading on trading success.

Michael responds to one of his readers on Warren Buffett.

eSignal learning has an article on seasonality in trading futures.   

The expected value of mouse smashing.

Four days with Phil Ivey video.

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