Usually on Fridays I post weekend links, for the next few weeks I will be posting articles related to poker. Poker and trading share some common similarities. If you have yet to read my previous poker articles I suggest you start with the following articles:
There is a lot of debate about poker is it a skill game? Or is it simply gambling? My view is that poker is a game of skill with a luck component. I enjoy playing poker it I would consider it an excellent hobby that has helped me increase my knowledge of applied probability. At the moment I am learning to play HU Sit & Go’s, these are really fun games which require a unique set of skills.
Poker Luck Meter
In both trading and poker you can lose a lot of money in the short run making correct decisions. In poker however there are several ways we can analyze or decisions to see if they are “correct”. Today we are going to have a look at an excellent free online tool called the poker luck meter. You simply upload your hand history files and sit back and let the analysis begin.
Poker Luck Meter in Action
In the past week I have played very little poker about 1600 hands. This is of course a very small sample size I did however felt happy with my play and for the most part I was pretty sure I got my money in good. It was a losing week for me. Lets upload my hands and see if I was played well and were unlucky or I was just playing bad.
Statistics
As you can see my expected all in winnings and my actual winning varied quite a bit. Also the likelihood of my having such bad luck into the future is around 7%.
Expected vs. Realized Winnings
Showdown vs. Non-Showdown Winnings
All-In Expectation vs. Realized Winnings
Conclusions
It would be foolish to try and draw any concrete conclusions from such a small sample of hands. I am sure the more hands I play the closer my realized profit will be to my expected profit. In poker and trading to be successful:
- You have to be a good loser.
- You have work on strategies to control your emotions.
- Understand you will lose between 49% – 40% of the time (If you have an edge).
- Never stop learning.
- Connect with other traders players.
- Keep good records.
Next week I will go through the poker software I use and how it helps my game. Would love to get some feedback if you find these posts interesting or not please leave a comment below.
